🇰🇪 Kenyan citizens · 🇬🇧 UK · Family / Spouse
UK family / spouse visa refusal rate for Kenyan citizens (year to March 2026)
The Home Office decided 426 UK family visa applications from Kenyan nationals in the year to March 2026, and refused 11.3% of them — so about 89 in every 100 decided applications were issued. That is down from 13.4% in year to March 2025. Unlike the Schengen figures, this is grouped by the applicant's nationality rather than by where the application was lodged, and it is broken down by visa type, so it describes Kenyan family applicants specifically. Withdrawn and lapsed applications are excluded from both sides of the fraction. It remains a nationality-wide outcome rather than a prediction for one case. The estimator below weighs your own finances, ties, travel history and refusal record instead.
Last reviewed August 2026 per our editorial standards. Rate: UK Home Office — outcomes of entry clearance visa applications by nationality and visa type (Vis_D02) .
How likely is a family visa to the United Kingdom for Kenyan citizens? Officers focus on whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you. A typical applicant sees roughly 48%, and the biggest single lever is the relationship and sponsor. Kenyan applicants see elevated refusal rates; documented finances, stable employment and ties to home are decisive.
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Where Kenya sits in the official data
Two governments publish visa outcomes broken down by country. Neither predicts an individual decision, but together they show how Kenyan applicants fare relative to everyone else, and which of the destinations we cover currently refuses the fewest applications from Kenya.
US visitor visas — FY2025
A 68.2% adjusted refusal rate places Kenya 183rd of 199 nationalities the State Department publishes — a lower refusal rate than 8% of them. The median nationality sits at 31.8%, so Kenya is 36.4 points above it.
Schengen short-stay visas — 2025
Across all Schengen consulates in Kenya, 33.1% of short-stay applications were not issued — 102nd of 127 countries with a meaningful application volume, and 17.5 points above the 15.6% median.
| Destination | Refused | Issued | Decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 16.9% | 83.1% | 5,063 |
| the Netherlands | 19.4% | 80.6% | 5,152 |
| Italy | 19.9% | 80.1% | 6,427 |
| Greece | 23.5% | 76.5% | 2,359 |
| France | 26.2% | 73.8% | 4,326 |
| Germany | 29% | 71% | 10,039 |
Among Schengen states, applications lodged in Kenya were refused least often by Spain at 16.9% and most often by Germany at 29% — a gap of 12.1 points on a like-for-like basis. That gap reflects who applies where as much as how strictly each state decides, so it is a starting point for choosing a main destination, not a ranking of leniency. You must still apply to the state where you will spend the most nights.
Demand and outcome moved together for Kenya between 2024 and 2025. Schengen consulates there decided 76,271 short-stay applications, against 64,779 the year before — up 17.7% — while the refusal rate went from 29.1% to 33.1%. Had 2024's rate held, roughly 3,032 of the 76,271 applicants refused in 2025 would have been issued a visa instead.
Sources: U.S. Department of State — Adjusted Refusal Rate, B-Visas Only, by Nationality and European Commission — Schengen short-stay visa statistics for consulates . Schengen figures are grouped by the country an application was lodged in, not by passport.
Frequently asked questions
What is the UK family visa refusal rate for Kenyan citizens?
11.3% in year to March 2026, against 13.4% in year to March 2025 — meaning 88.7% of decided cases ended in a visa. Entry clearance family visa applications from Kenya nationals decided in the year to March 2026, as a share refused. The Home Office publishes decisions by nationality and visa type; withdrawn and lapsed applications are excluded from both sides of the fraction. It is a nationality-wide outcome, not a probability for an individual application. Your own case is assessed on its own evidence, so use the estimator on this page rather than the average.
Where does this UK refusal-rate figure come from?
From UK Home Office — outcomes of entry clearance visa applications by nationality and visa type (Vis_D02), covering year to March 2026. We restate the published figure without adjustment and link the source file directly, so you can check it yourself.
What matters most for a UK family visa?
Officers focus on whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you. In practice the single biggest lever is the relationship and sponsor, so make that part of your application as strong and well-documented as possible.
Does a previous visa refusal affect my chances?
Yes. A prior refusal weighs on new applications until its underlying reason is addressed. Find out exactly why you were refused, fix what caused it, and clearly show what is different this time.
Is this a guarantee of approval?
No. GetVisaOdds is an educational planning tool, not legal advice and not a guarantee. Only a consular or immigration officer can decide your application. We show approximate odds and the reasons behind them so you can prepare better.
Is my information private?
Completely. The estimate runs entirely in your browser. Your answers are never sent to a server or stored — there is no sign-up and nothing to leak.
