🇪🇹 Ethiopian citizens · 🇬🇧 UK · Family / Spouse
UK family / spouse visa refusal rate for Ethiopian citizens (year to March 2026)
The Home Office decided 1,439 UK family visa applications from Ethiopian nationals in the year to March 2026, and refused 8.2% of them — so about 92 in every 100 decided applications were issued. That is down from 13.2% in year to March 2025. Unlike the Schengen figures, this is grouped by the applicant's nationality rather than by where the application was lodged, and it is broken down by visa type, so it describes Ethiopian family applicants specifically. Withdrawn and lapsed applications are excluded from both sides of the fraction. It remains a nationality-wide outcome rather than a prediction for one case. The estimator below weighs your own finances, ties, travel history and refusal record instead.
Last reviewed August 2026 per our editorial standards. Rate: UK Home Office — outcomes of entry clearance visa applications by nationality and visa type (Vis_D02) .
How likely is a family visa to the United Kingdom for Ethiopian citizens? Officers focus on whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you. A typical applicant sees roughly 55%, and the biggest single lever is the relationship and sponsor. Ethiopian applicants historically face high refusal rates; strong documented ties, finances and a clear purpose matter most.
Estimate my personal oddsEstimate your personal odds
Pre-filled for this route. A few taps and it’s done — privately, in your browser.
Your trip
The essentials. Pre-filled if you came from a specific page.
Where Ethiopia sits in the official data
Two governments publish visa outcomes broken down by country. Neither predicts an individual decision, but together they show how Ethiopian applicants fare relative to everyone else, and which of the destinations we cover currently refuses the fewest applications from Ethiopia.
US visitor visas — FY2025
A 53.6% adjusted refusal rate places Ethiopia 153rd of 199 nationalities the State Department publishes — a lower refusal rate than 23% of them. The median nationality sits at 31.8%, so Ethiopia is 21.8 points above it.
Schengen short-stay visas — 2025
Across all Schengen consulates in Ethiopia, 34% of short-stay applications were not issued — 105th of 127 countries with a meaningful application volume, and 18.4 points above the 15.6% median.
| Destination | Refused | Issued | Decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 14.1% | 85.9% | 1,651 |
| France | 26.5% | 73.5% | 4,024 |
| the Netherlands | 33.3% | 66.7% | 2,316 |
| Spain | 37.5% | 62.5% | 1,562 |
| Italy | 37.8% | 62.2% | 7,306 |
| Germany | 38.2% | 61.8% | 3,887 |
Among Schengen states, applications lodged in Ethiopia were refused least often by Greece at 14.1% and most often by Germany at 38.2% — a gap of 24.1 points on a like-for-like basis. That gap reflects who applies where as much as how strictly each state decides, so it is a starting point for choosing a main destination, not a ranking of leniency. You must still apply to the state where you will spend the most nights.
Demand and outcome moved together for Ethiopia between 2024 and 2025. Schengen consulates there decided 25,458 short-stay applications, against 23,851 the year before — up 6.7% — while the refusal rate went from 36.1% to 34%. That easing meant roughly 533 more applicants were issued a visa than 2024's rate would have produced.
Sources: U.S. Department of State — Adjusted Refusal Rate, B-Visas Only, by Nationality and European Commission — Schengen short-stay visa statistics for consulates . Schengen figures are grouped by the country an application was lodged in, not by passport.
Frequently asked questions
What is the UK family visa refusal rate for Ethiopian citizens?
8.2% in year to March 2026, against 13.2% in year to March 2025 — meaning 91.8% of decided cases ended in a visa. Entry clearance family visa applications from Ethiopia nationals decided in the year to March 2026, as a share refused. The Home Office publishes decisions by nationality and visa type; withdrawn and lapsed applications are excluded from both sides of the fraction. It is a nationality-wide outcome, not a probability for an individual application. Your own case is assessed on its own evidence, so use the estimator on this page rather than the average.
Where does this UK refusal-rate figure come from?
From UK Home Office — outcomes of entry clearance visa applications by nationality and visa type (Vis_D02), covering year to March 2026. We restate the published figure without adjustment and link the source file directly, so you can check it yourself.
What matters most for a UK family visa?
Officers focus on whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you. In practice the single biggest lever is the relationship and sponsor, so make that part of your application as strong and well-documented as possible.
Does a previous visa refusal affect my chances?
Yes. A prior refusal weighs on new applications until its underlying reason is addressed. Find out exactly why you were refused, fix what caused it, and clearly show what is different this time.
Is this a guarantee of approval?
No. GetVisaOdds is an educational planning tool, not legal advice and not a guarantee. Only a consular or immigration officer can decide your application. We show approximate odds and the reasons behind them so you can prepare better.
Is my information private?
Completely. The estimate runs entirely in your browser. Your answers are never sent to a server or stored — there is no sign-up and nothing to leak.
