Methodology · No black box
How the estimate actually works
GetVisaOdds is a transparent, rule-based estimator — not an “AI trained on thousands of secret applications.” Every number comes from an editable config you can reason about. Here is the whole method, start to finish.
Last reviewed July 2026.
In one sentence: we take a public base rate for your destination and visa type, adjust it for your nationality and your personal profile using fixed, published weights, and show you the result with the reasons behind it.
- 1 Base rate
Start from a published base rate
Every destination + visa type has an approximate approval rate drawn from public statistics. It is the starting point for a typical applicant — not your personal odds yet.
- 2 Nationality
Adjust for the nationality prior
Refusal tendencies differ by passport. The nudge is fitted to published outcomes — the US and Schengen visitor-visa figures for that nationality — not hand-set. The whole fitted table is published below. It is a modelling prior, never a judgment of you.
- 3 Your profile
Apply your personal factors
Finances, ties, travel history, prior refusals, purpose and more each move the estimate up or down by a transparent, fixed amount.
- 4 Combine
Combine and bound the result
We add everything in log-odds space, then convert back to a percentage bounded between 5% and 95% — because nothing about a visa is ever 0% or 100%.
Why we combine in “log-odds”
Adding raw percentages is misleading — five “+10%” factors would sail past 100%. Instead we convert to log-odds (the logit), where independent pieces of evidence add up cleanly, then convert back with the logistic function. Strengths and weaknesses stack with natural diminishing returns, and the answer always stays a sensible probability. The final number is bounded to 5–95%, because a consular officer’s discretion means no application is ever a certainty either way.
The nationality prior, and where it comes from
This is the parameter that used to be the least defensible thing on the site: a hand-typed number that moved every estimate and was published nowhere. It is now fitted to government data. For each nationality we take the published US visitor-visa outcome and the published Schengen short-stay outcome, express each as a shift from that destination’s own baseline in log-odds, and average the two. The sources are independent — different governments, different methodologies, different applicant pools — so the fact that they agree closely is the best evidence available that the prior measures something real.
| Nationality | Prior (log-odds) | Fitted to data? |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | + 1.31 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Kuwait | + 1.25 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Indonesia | + 0.43 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Vietnam | + 0.24 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| the Philippines | + 0.18 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Turkey | -0.01 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| India | -0.05 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Morocco | -0.30 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Tanzania | -0.59 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Sri Lanka | -0.73 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Egypt | -0.90 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Algeria | -1.15 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Ethiopia | -1.26 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Nepal | -1.37 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Uganda | -1.41 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Pakistan | -1.49 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Cameroon | -1.54 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Kenya | -1.55 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Nigeria | -1.62 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Ghana | -1.75 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Bangladesh | -1.85 | Yes — US + Schengen |
| Senegal | -2.08 | Yes — US + Schengen |
A prior is a starting point for someone we know nothing else about. Every personal factor you answer moves the estimate from there, and on many profiles the personal factors outweigh the prior entirely. See the full published tables on US refusal rates and Schengen refusal rates.
The base rates we start from
Approximate approval priors for a moderate-profile applicant, before your nationality and personal factors. These are educational approximations of public figures — not official per-application odds.
| Destination | tourist | student | work | business | family | residence | digital nomad | golden |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 80% | 74% | 87% | 82% | 79% | 87% | 87% | 91% |
| UK | 82% | 90% | 89% | 84% | 81% | 88% | 88% | 92% |
| Canada | 68% | 62% | 79% | 71% | 67% | 78% | 78% | 84% |
| Australia | 85% | 89% | 91% | 87% | 84% | 90% | 90% | 93% |
| Germany | 84% | 88% | 90% | 86% | 83% | 90% | 90% | 93% |
| France | 83% | 87% | 89% | 85% | 82% | 89% | 89% | 92% |
| Netherlands | 85% | 89% | 91% | 87% | 84% | 90% | 90% | 93% |
| Italy | 82% | 87% | 89% | 84% | 81% | 88% | 88% | 92% |
| Ireland | 80% | 85% | 87% | 82% | 79% | 87% | 87% | 91% |
| New Zealand | 86% | 90% | 91% | 88% | 85% | 91% | 91% | 94% |
| UAE | 93% | 95% | 95% | 94% | 93% | 96% | 96% | 95% |
| Schengen | 84% | 88% | 90% | 86% | 83% | 90% | 90% | 93% |
| Portugal | 85% | 89% | 91% | 87% | 84% | 88% | 85% | 90% |
| Spain | 84% | 88% | 90% | 86% | 83% | 85% | 86% | 93% |
| Greece | 86% | 90% | 91% | 88% | 85% | 91% | 91% | 92% |
Editable in src/data/baseRates.ts.
The factors we weigh
Each factor moves your estimate by a fixed amount and comes with the plain reason you see in your results. Factors marked improvable are ones you can realistically strengthen before you apply.
Finances
- Financial capacity Improvable
- Funding source Improvable
- Income level Fixed
Ties to home
- Employment & occupation Fixed
- Ties to home country Improvable
History & record
- Travel history Fixed
- Prior visa approvals Fixed
- Prior refusals Improvable
- Immigration record Improvable
Trip purpose
- Trip purpose Improvable
- Trip length Improvable
Sponsor / offer
- Admission & funding (study) Improvable
- Job offer & sponsor (work) Improvable
- Host / sponsor Improvable
- Relationship (family) Fixed
Profile
- Language ability Improvable
- Education level Fixed
- Life stage Fixed
Weights live in a single file: src/lib/scoring/factors.ts.
What we deliberately don’t do
- No invented statistics. We never claim a “95% success rate” or a fabricated application count. Our base rates are openly approximate.
- No data collection. The estimate runs entirely in your browser. Your answers are never sent to us or stored on a server — there is no server to send them to.
- No guarantees. This is a planning tool. Only a consular or immigration officer can decide your application.
Data sources
Base rates are seeded from publicly reported figures, including:
- US Department of State — “Adjusted Refusal Rate” tables for B-visas (by nationality)
- European Union / Schengen — annual short-stay (Type C) visa statistics
- UK Home Office — immigration and visa outcome transparency data
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) — temporary-resident-visa data
- Australian Department of Home Affairs — visa grant statistics
- Immigration New Zealand — visitor and student visa approval data
