🇪🇹 Ethiopian citizens · 🇺🇸 USA · Business
USA business visa refusal rate for Ethiopian citizens (FY2025)
53.6% of Ethiopian B1/B2 visitor-visa applications to the United States were refused in FY2025, the US fiscal year that ended on 30 September 2025 — so on the same adjusted basis about 46 in every 100 cases ended in a visa. That is up from 51.2% in FY2024. The State Department publishes this on an adjusted basis, excluding refusals that were later overcome. It is a nationality-wide outcome across every US post, not a probability for your own case: it takes no account of your finances, employment, ties to Ethiopia, travel history or any previous refusal — which is what the consular officer actually weighs. The estimator below weighs your own finances, ties, travel history and refusal record instead.
Last reviewed August 2026 per our editorial standards. Rate: U.S. Department of State — Adjusted Refusal Rate, B-Visas Only, by Nationality .
USA assesses a business visa on whether your trip is a genuine, short business visit. As an approximate starting point, this route runs near a 57% base approval for Ethiopian citizens — your finances, ties and history then push your personal odds up or down. Ethiopian applicants historically face high refusal rates; strong documented ties, finances and a clear purpose matter most.
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Where Ethiopia sits in the official data
Two governments publish visa outcomes broken down by country. Neither predicts an individual decision, but together they show how Ethiopian applicants fare relative to everyone else, and which of the destinations we cover currently refuses the fewest applications from Ethiopia.
US visitor visas — FY2025
A 53.6% adjusted refusal rate places Ethiopia 153rd of 199 nationalities the State Department publishes — a lower refusal rate than 23% of them. The median nationality sits at 31.8%, so Ethiopia is 21.8 points above it.
Schengen short-stay visas — 2025
Across all Schengen consulates in Ethiopia, 34% of short-stay applications were not issued — 105th of 127 countries with a meaningful application volume, and 18.4 points above the 15.6% median.
| Destination | Refused | Issued | Decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 14.1% | 85.9% | 1,651 |
| France | 26.5% | 73.5% | 4,024 |
| the Netherlands | 33.3% | 66.7% | 2,316 |
| Spain | 37.5% | 62.5% | 1,562 |
| Italy | 37.8% | 62.2% | 7,306 |
| Germany | 38.2% | 61.8% | 3,887 |
Among Schengen states, applications lodged in Ethiopia were refused least often by Greece at 14.1% and most often by Germany at 38.2% — a gap of 24.1 points on a like-for-like basis. That gap reflects who applies where as much as how strictly each state decides, so it is a starting point for choosing a main destination, not a ranking of leniency. You must still apply to the state where you will spend the most nights.
Demand and outcome moved together for Ethiopia between 2024 and 2025. Schengen consulates there decided 25,458 short-stay applications, against 23,851 the year before — up 6.7% — while the refusal rate went from 36.1% to 34%. That easing meant roughly 533 more applicants were issued a visa than 2024's rate would have produced.
Sources: U.S. Department of State — Adjusted Refusal Rate, B-Visas Only, by Nationality and European Commission — Schengen short-stay visa statistics for consulates . Schengen figures are grouped by the country an application was lodged in, not by passport.
Frequently asked questions
What is the USA business visa refusal rate for Ethiopian citizens?
53.6% in FY2025, against 51.2% in FY2024 — meaning 46.4% of decided cases ended in a visa. Share of Ethiopia B1/B2 visitor-visa cases refused in the US fiscal year ending 30 September 2025, on the State Department's adjusted basis: refusals that were later overcome are removed from both the numerator and the denominator, so the figure is refusals ÷ (issuances + net refusals). It covers visitor visas only and describes the nationality as a whole — it is not a probability for an individual application. Your own case is assessed on its own evidence, so use the estimator on this page rather than the average.
Where does this USA refusal-rate figure come from?
From U.S. Department of State — Adjusted Refusal Rate, B-Visas Only, by Nationality, covering FY2025. We restate the published figure without adjustment and link the source file directly, so you can check it yourself.
What matters most for a USA business visa?
Officers focus on whether your trip is a genuine, short business visit. In practice the single biggest lever is a credible invitation and ties, so make that part of your application as strong and well-documented as possible.
Does a previous visa refusal affect my chances?
Yes. A prior refusal weighs on new applications until its underlying reason is addressed. Find out exactly why you were refused, fix what caused it, and clearly show what is different this time.
Is this a guarantee of approval?
No. GetVisaOdds is an educational planning tool, not legal advice and not a guarantee. Only a consular or immigration officer can decide your application. We show approximate odds and the reasons behind them so you can prepare better.
Is my information private?
Completely. The estimate runs entirely in your browser. Your answers are never sent to a server or stored — there is no sign-up and nothing to leak.
