Skip to content
GetVisaOdds
Destinations Guides How it works Estimate my odds

🇪🇹 Ethiopian citizens · 🇵🇹 Portugal · Family / Spouse

Portugal family / spouse visa success rate for Ethiopian citizens

In the UK — the only government that publishes visa outcomes broken down by both nationality and visa type — 91.8% of Ethiopian family visa applications were approved, up from 86.8% a year earlier, across 1,439 decisions in the year to March 2026. For Ethiopian family applicants that is the only approval rate on record anywhere. Portugal does not publish family decisions by nationality, so no Portugal-specific rate exists for Ethiopia — and any site quoting one is estimating. Where Ethiopia does have published rates, they run at 46.4% on US visitor visas in FY2025 and 66% across 25,458 Schengen short-stay decisions in 2025 — a wider picture of how Ethiopian applications are treated, though neither is a family-visa figure. What Portugal does document is the decision itself: officers assess whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you, and the biggest single lever is the relationship and sponsor. The estimator below weighs your own finances, ties, travel history and refusal record instead.

Last reviewed July 2026 per our editorial standards.

Portugal assesses a family visa on whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you. As an approximate starting point, this route runs near a 60% base approval for Ethiopian citizens — your finances, ties and history then push your personal odds up or down. Ethiopian applicants historically face high refusal rates; strong documented ties, finances and a clear purpose matter most.

Estimate my personal odds

Estimate your personal odds

Pre-filled for this route. A few taps and it’s done — privately, in your browser.

Step 1 of 813%

Your trip

The essentials. Pre-filled if you came from a specific page.

Where Ethiopia sits in the official data

Two governments publish visa outcomes broken down by country. Neither predicts an individual decision, but together they show how Ethiopian applicants fare relative to everyone else, and which of the destinations we cover currently refuses the fewest applications from Ethiopia.

UK family visas — year to March 2026

The UK is the only government that publishes outcomes by nationality and visa type, so it is the one place a family-visa figure for Ethiopia actually exists. 8.2% of Ethiopian family applications were refused across 1,439 decisions , against 13.2% the year before. That volume makes Ethiopia the 15th-largest source of UK family applicants, of 42 countries with meaningful numbers. Different country, different rules — a reference point, not your odds here.

US visitor visas — FY2025

A 53.6% adjusted refusal rate places Ethiopia 153rd of 199 nationalities the State Department publishes — a lower refusal rate than 23% of them. The median nationality sits at 31.8%, so Ethiopia is 21.8 points above it.

Schengen short-stay visas — 2025

Across all Schengen consulates in Ethiopia, 34% of short-stay applications were not issued — 105th of 127 countries with a meaningful application volume, and 18.4 points above the 15.6% median.

Schengen short-stay applications lodged in Ethiopia in 2025, by issuing state. All rows use the European Commission's methodology, so they are comparable with each other — the US figure is computed differently and is shown separately above.
DestinationRefusedIssuedDecided
Greece14.1%85.9%1,651
France26.5%73.5%4,024
the Netherlands33.3%66.7%2,316
Spain37.5%62.5%1,562
Italy37.8%62.2%7,306
Germany38.2%61.8%3,887

Among Schengen states, applications lodged in Ethiopia were refused least often by Greece at 14.1% and most often by Germany at 38.2% — a gap of 24.1 points on a like-for-like basis. That gap reflects who applies where as much as how strictly each state decides, so it is a starting point for choosing a main destination, not a ranking of leniency. You must still apply to the state where you will spend the most nights.

Demand and outcome moved together for Ethiopia between 2024 and 2025. Schengen consulates there decided 25,458 short-stay applications, against 23,851 the year before — up 6.7% — while the refusal rate went from 36.1% to 34%. That easing meant roughly 533 more applicants were issued a visa than 2024's rate would have produced.

Sources: U.S. Department of State — Adjusted Refusal Rate, B-Visas Only, by Nationality and European Commission — Schengen short-stay visa statistics for consulates . Schengen figures are grouped by the country an application was lodged in, not by passport.

What actually moves the needle

Evidence of a genuine relationship

This is the heart of family decisions for Portugal. Make it concrete and documented rather than assumed.

A sponsor who meets the requirements

Officers weigh this alongside everything else — gather clear evidence before you apply.

Funds and accommodation that are documented

Officers weigh this alongside everything else — gather clear evidence before you apply.

Context for Ethiopia applicants

Ethiopian applicants historically face high refusal rates; strong documented ties, finances and a clear purpose matter most. Your personal profile matters far more than any nationality-level pattern, so focus on the levers above.

Avoid the common pitfall

The most frequent reason this route fails is thin relationship evidence or a sponsor who falls short of requirements. Address it directly and you remove the biggest doubt.

Frequently asked questions

Is there an official Portugal family visa success rate for Ethiopian citizens?

Not one we currently carry. We only print a rate when we hold the publisher's own figure for this nationality and this visa category, and we do not hold one for Portugal family visas. The figure shown on this page is a modelled estimate built from published route-level data and your answers — we label it as such rather than presenting it as a government statistic. What you can act on is the documented requirement set below, which is what the decision actually turns on.

What matters most for a Portugal family visa?

Officers focus on whether the family relationship is genuine and the sponsor can support you. In practice the single biggest lever is the relationship and sponsor, so make that part of your application as strong and well-documented as possible.

Does a previous visa refusal affect my chances?

Yes. A prior refusal weighs on new applications until its underlying reason is addressed. Find out exactly why you were refused, fix what caused it, and clearly show what is different this time.

Is this a guarantee of approval?

No. GetVisaOdds is an educational planning tool, not legal advice and not a guarantee. Only a consular or immigration officer can decide your application. We show approximate odds and the reasons behind them so you can prepare better.

Is my information private?

Completely. The estimate runs entirely in your browser. Your answers are never sent to a server or stored — there is no sign-up and nothing to leak.

Explore related visa odds

Portugal family visa odds for other nationalities

Helpful guides

Cheapest and fastest EU residency by investment (2026) → Portugal D8 vs Spain digital nomad visa: which wins in 2026? → How to read visa approval and refusal rates → How to prove strong ties to your home country → How to document your finances for a visa → What to do after a visa refusal →